基于引文曲线拟合的新兴技术主题的突破性预测——以干细胞领域为例

Purpose/significance] Through the fitting analysis of the citation curves of emerging technology topics, this paper refined and summarized the main types and characteristics of the citation curves, in order to provide a useful reference for the study of prediction methods for radical innovation topics at the micro level.[Method/process] Firstly, the hypothesis of using citation curves to trace the emerging technology topics to produce radical innovation was proposed and the concept and measurement method of the transition index were proposed. The criteria of predicting radical innovation were summarized and the method model of radical innovation identification was constructed from the two dimensions of knowledge transition and continuous growth. Then used the time slices cited data of each emerging technology topic to construct the citation curves, classify and summarize the types and characteristics of citation curves of different emerging technology topics.[Result/conclusion] The citation curves of emerging technology topics includes four types:continuous growth in the near future; continuous decline in the near future; short life cycle; consistent trends in similar years. According to the identification criteria of radical innovation, the citation curves have the potential to become radical innovation if they have many transitions and a large transition range, and the highest citation peak occurs later, and maintains a high citation rate in the near future with a sustained stable or rapid growth. Combined with the assessment of the prediction results by domain experts and the research progress of different emerging technology topics, it is verified that the citation curve fitting analysis can effectively predict the breakthrough of emerging technology topics.