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基于GWR方法的山东省县域空间经济数据分析

Spatial economic data analysis of Shandong Province Based on GWR method

中文摘要英文摘要

本文通过对山东140个县、区的经济数据进行数据分析并构建模型,研究这些经济数据是否具有空间相关性。本文构建了普通最小二乘法模型与地理加权回归模型对山东省县域经济进行分析。由于国民生产总值(简称GDP)不仅反映一个国家或地区的经济水平,还反映一个国家的综合国力与财富多少,因此GDP被公认为衡量国家或地区经济状况的最佳指标。所以本文采用人均GDP作为因变量。通过全局自相关和普通最小二乘法分析选择不存在冗余和具有空间相关性的自变量。经过反复操作,最后确定的自变量有:产业结构变量(第二产业与第三产业产值之比)、经济外向性变量(人均实际利用外资额)、资本投入变量(人均固定资产投资额)、人力资源变量(从业人员占总人口的比重)。本文对这些经济数据依次进行全局自相关分析、普通最小二乘法分析、地理加权回归分析得出相应的研究结果。结果表明:沿海地区第二产业与第三产业产值之比与人均生产总值成反比,内陆地区第二产业与第三产业产值之比与人均生产总值成正比;人均实际利用外资额与人均生产总值成正比,且人均实际利用外资额对内陆地区比对沿海地区影响显著;人均固定资产投资额与人均生产总值成正比;从业人员占总人口的比重与人均生产总值成正比。

Based on the economic data, Shandong 140 counties and districts were analyzed to study whether these economic data with a spatial correlation. In this paper we build two models which are ordinary least squares and geographic weighted regression to analyze the data of Shandong county economy. GDP not only reflects the economic level of a country, but also reflect the comprehensive national strength and wealth of a country.So it is often regarded as a measure of the country's economic situation and is regarded as the best indicator. In this paper, the per capita GDP is regarded as the dependent variable.We use the global auto-correlation and ordinary least squares to make sure that there is no redundancy and have spatial correlation of the independent variables. After repeated operations, finalized the the independent variables are as follows: industry structure variable (the ratio of the secondary industry and tertiary industry ), extroversion of economic variables (per capita actual utilization of foreign capital), capital input variables (per capita investment in fixed assets), human resource variable (the proportion of employees in the total population). In this paper,we make the economic data have a global autocorrelation analysis,ordinary least squares analysis,geographic weighted regression analysis.Studies have shown that: One of them is that the ratio of the secondary industry and tertiary industry and per capita GDP tend to be inversely related in coastal areas, while the inland areas of the ratio of the secondary industry and tertiary industry is proportional to the GDP per capita; the per capita actual utilization of foreign capital is proportional to per capita GDP, the per capita actual utilization of foreign capital impact on the inland areas is more significant than that in coastal areas.Per capita investment in fixed assets is proportional to the per capita GDP; proportion of employees is proportional to the per capita GDP.

尹涛、冯慧征

经济学工业经济贸易经济

管理科学与工程GWR方法空间相关性山东县域经济

Management science and engineeringGWR methodspatial correlationShandongcounty economy

尹涛,冯慧征.基于GWR方法的山东省县域空间经济数据分析[EB/OL].(2016-06-06)[2025-08-11].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201606-360.点此复制

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