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Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model

Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model

来源:Arxiv_logoArxiv
英文摘要

We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the recovery period are modeled with general functions. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, in the spring, 2020.

Trifce Sandev、Ljupco Kocarev、Igor Tomovski、Lasko Basnarkov

10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112286

医学研究方法基础医学数学

Trifce Sandev,Ljupco Kocarev,Igor Tomovski,Lasko Basnarkov.Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model[EB/OL].(2021-07-15)[2025-08-18].https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07427.点此复制

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