气候变化情景下革苞菊属在中国的潜在地理分布

ugarinovia is a genus that is endemic to the Alashan Desert in China. It is crucial for the conservationof Tugarinovia to predict the impact of climate change on its potential geographical distribution. This study wasbased on 34 sites of distribution of Tugarinovia in China and 22 environmental variables. The current and future(2050s and 2070s) changes in the pattern of distribution of Tugarinovia under three shared socio-economic paths(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in China were simulated using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Theability of model to predict these changes was verified by the area under curve (AUC) value under the receiveroperating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the primary environmental factors that affect its distribution wereanalyzed using the Jackknife method and comprehensive contribution rate. The results showed the following: (1)The MaxEnt model has high simulation accuracy (AUC=0.992), and altitude, the warmest quarterly precipitation,the coldest quarterly precipitation, and annual average temperature are the dominant environmental factors thataffect the geographical distribution of the Tugarinovia. (2) Currently, the suitable and highly suitable areas forTugarinovia are both limited, with a suitable area of 37.08×104 km2 and a highly suitable area of 6.89×104 km2,which are primarily distributed along the Yinshan and Helan Mountains in a fragmented manner. (3) The futurethree climate scenarios suggest that the highly suitable areas of Tugarinovia will overall increase and display asignificant increase under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. The centroid of its suitable area mainly migrates to theeast (Alxa Left Banner).