加权马尔可夫链和GM(1,1)模型在公共危机管理中的应用

s public crises happen more frequently in recent years, the lives and properties of human beings are seriously threatened. Effective public crisis management can mobilize all kinds of available resources to achieve the goals of preventing, restricting and eliminating the crisis and thus keep losses to a minimum. Based on the fact that there are much uncertainty and imprecise characteristics in public crises, this paper predicts the incidence of infectious disease which belongs to public health events by using the weighted Markov Chain and GM(1,1) model and compares their merits and demerits. Finally, the two models are applied to public crisis management system which is called Blue Thunder according to actual condition in order to fulfill the analysis and early warning of the crises effectively.