S曲线回归方法在新型冠状肺炎预测中的应用
pplication of S-curve regression in the prediction of COVID-19
本文研究了疾病传播相关的S曲线。通过数学变换将S曲线的非线性形式转换为线性形式,并利用得到的线性方程拟合了国内一些省市的新型冠状病毒肺炎的累计确诊病例数据,得到了各地区疫情的基本繁殖率和最大感染人数。本方法得到的模型曲线与实际情况符合很好,说明其具有可靠的预测能力。随后,用这种方法预测了韩国的疫情发展趋势,结果表明：韩国新型冠状病毒肺炎的基本繁殖率约为4.64,最大累计确诊病例约为8700例。
he S-curve which related to the disease transmission is studied in the present work. The nonlinear form of S-curve is transferred to a linear form, and then is used to fit the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. The basic reproduction rate and the maximum cumulative confirmed cases are presented. The model curve from the fitting result is well agreement with the actual data, which demonstrate a reliable predictive result. This approach is then used in the prediction for the epidemic trend in South Korea. The result gives a basic reproduction rate 4.64 and the cumulative confirmed cases 8700.
李志宏、李星君
医学研究方法预防医学
流行病与卫生统计学新型冠状病毒S曲线线性回归
Epidemiology and health statistics COVID-19 S-curvelinear regression
李志宏,李星君.S曲线回归方法在新型冠状肺炎预测中的应用[EB/OL].(2020-03-20)[2025-08-21].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202003-236.点此复制
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