灰色模型在工矿企业事故预测中的应用
he grey model in the Industrial and mining establishment accident forecasts application
工矿企业伤亡人数长期居高不下，一直威胁着我国安全生产环境。本文利用灰色理论建立灰色GM(1,1) 模型，并给出了参数a,b 的改进方式，基本克服了数据不足的缺陷，使数据更具平滑性。最后预测的数值与实际情况吻合较好，同时给出了我国未来几年工矿企业伤亡的预测情况。
he Industrial and mining establishment casualties stay at a high level for a long time, has been threatening our country safety in production environment. This article uses the grey theory establishment grey model GM(1,1) , and has given the parameter a,b improvement way, has overcome the flaw which basically the data is insufficient, causes the data to have smoothness. Finally the forecast value and the actual situation tally well, simultaneously will forecast our country in the future several year Industrial and mining establishment\\\\\\\
梅光辉、牛成虎
矿山安全、矿山劳动保护安全科学
灰色模型GM(11)工矿企业预测
Grey modelGM(11)Industrial and mining establishmentForecasts
梅光辉,牛成虎.灰色模型在工矿企业事故预测中的应用[EB/OL].(2008-08-07)[2025-08-19].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200808-101.点此复制
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