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互联网对省际贸易的影响--基于引力模型的研究

Influence of Internet on Interprovincial Trade--Based on gravitating model

中文摘要英文摘要

我国提出了构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,其中以国内大循环为主体凸显我国超大市场规模和内需潜力优势,省际贸易指标可在一定程度上反映这一现状。本文利用《中国交通年鉴》和国家统计局数据库的相关数据,构建了省际贸易数据库,并基于引力模型实证分析了进入物联网时代互联网对省际贸易的影响及其相关渠道。结果表明:互联网发展对省际贸易起到了显著而稳健的积极作用。首先,互联网发展通过允许更多企业进入电商市场,显著提高了省际贸易货运量与价值量;其次,这种效应在我国西部地区尤为显著,有效改善了我国地域发展不平衡的局面;在考虑了内生性以及使用替换变量检验后,结果依然稳健。以上发现补充了我国贸易方式的相关实证经验。

hina has put forward to the establishment of a "dual circulation" development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement. The domestic circulation as the main body highlights the advantage of China\'s super market scale and the potential of domestic demand. The inter-provincial trade index can reflect this situation to a certain extent. This paper uses the relevant data of China Transport Yearbook and Statistics database of National Bureau to build the inter-provincial trade database, as well as to empirically analyze the impact of Internet on inter-provincial trade and its influence channels at the time of the Internet of Things based on the gravity model. The results show that the development of Internet has played a significant and steady positive role in inter-provincial trade. Firstly, it has significantly increased the volume and value of inter-provincial rail freight by allowing more enterprises to enter the e-commerce market. Secondly, this effect is particularly significant in the western region of China, which effectively improves the unbalanced situation of regional development in China. Accounting for endogeneity and with the use of substitution tests, the results remained robust. The above findings complement the relevant empirical experience of China\'s trade mode.

张晓婷、周文杰、柒江艺

贸易经济信息产业经济交通运输经济

宏观经济学互联网省际贸易电子商务

MacroeconomicsInternetInter-provincial TradeE-commerce

张晓婷,周文杰,柒江艺.互联网对省际贸易的影响--基于引力模型的研究[EB/OL].(2021-09-24)[2025-07-19].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/202109-48.点此复制

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