Potential effects of life history on demographic genetic structure in stage-structured plant populations

Abstract Standing genetic variation, or genetic diversity, is a source of adaptive evolution, and is crucial for long-term population persistence under environmental changes. One empirical method to predict the temporal dynamics of standing genetic variation in age- or stage-structured populations is to compare genetic diversity and composition among age/stage classes. The resultant within-population genetic structure, sometimes referred to as demographic genetic structure, has been regarded as a proxy of potential genetic changes that accompany sequential generation turnover. However, especially in stage-structured plant populations, individuals in more juvenile stages do not necessarily represent future populations, as they might die, stop growing, or retrogress over the course of life history. How demographic genetic structure is subjected to life history and whether it is a good proxy of temporal genetic dynamics had remained unclear. Here, we developed a matrix model which well describes temporal dynamics of expected heterozygosity, a common proxy of genetic diversity, for a neutral locus in stage-structured populations under equilibrium assumption. Based on the model, two indices of demographic genetic structure were formulated: relative ratio of expected heterozygosity and genetic differentiation among stage classes. We found that the two indices were largely determined by stable stage distribution and population size, and that they did not show clear correlations with the change rate of genetic diversity, indicating that inferring future genetic diversity from demographic genetic structure conventionally is misleading. Our study facilitates reliable interpretation on empirical demographic genetic data.