Predator-prey interactions in a warming world: the critical role of cold tolerance

Abstract Thermal tolerance mismatch within predator-prey systems may have pro-found effects on species population abundances and geographical distributions. To examine the generalized responses of a predator-prey system to climate change, we construct a biologically detailed stage-structured population dynamic model of interactions between ladybird beetles and aphids. We explore the model’s dynamics across the entire feasible parameter space of mean temperature and seasonality. Within this space, we explore different scenarios of predator and prey thermal tolerance mismatch to gain insight into how these thermal sensitivities affect the interacting species’ responses to climatic change. Our results indicate a predator’s cold tolerance has a larger effect on prey abundance than its heat tolerance. Mismatches between the predator’s and prey’s thermal tolerances also affect the species’ response to climate change. We identify three common patterns of species abundance across the feasible parameter space that relate to the type of thermal tolerance mismatches. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the complex interplay between climate change and species interactions.