基于预测模型的我国房地产市场的发展趋势研究
Research on Real Estate Market Trends Based on Prediction Model
房地产经济是国民经济的重要组成部分，把握好房地产市场的发展趋势至关重要。本文在分析ARIMA模型和无偏GM(1,1)幂模型预测特性的基础上，以我国1998年1月到2014年6月的国房景气指数作为反映房地产市场波动的分析指标，构建最优权重的ARIMA(2,1,2)和无偏GM(1,1)幂模型的组合预测模型，结果显示我国近期房地产市场依然处于不景气空间中，但整体波动幅度不大，市场走势趋于稳定。最后根据预测结果及当前市场形势分别对政府、房地产企业和购房者提出对策建议。
he real economics is an important part of national economy and it is vital to know the real estate market trends. This paper chose the latest monthly real estate climate index from January 1998 to June 2014 as the study to build ARIMA(2,1,2) model and unbiased GM(1,1) power model, then the period is predicted by the combined model based on optimal weights. The result show real estate market is still depressed but basically stable. At last we do some analysis and suggestions for government, real estate business and buyers.
叶桂芳、刘建平
经济学经济计划、经济管理
房地产市场RIMA模型无偏GM(11)幂模型组合预测
real estate marketARIMA modelunbiased GM(11) power modelcombined forecast
叶桂芳,刘建平.基于预测模型的我国房地产市场的发展趋势研究[EB/OL].(2015-05-11)[2025-07-16].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201505-106.点此复制
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