人口老龄化和我国经济增长研究--基于CGE模型

he purpose of this article is to find the channel mechanism of the role of population aging in China\'s economic growth, and evaluate the impact of population aging on China\'s economic growth. In the specific research process, this paper is based on the computable general equilibrium model that introduces the labor supply module, consumption module, and savings rate module. It considers three influence channels of labor supply, consumption, and savings rate to quantitatively study the effects of population aging on China\'s economic growth Channel and comprehensive effects of the impact. The results of this study indicate that population aging has different effects on China\'s economic growth mainly from the three influence channels of labor supply, consumption and savings rate. The specific conclusions are as follows: Population aging has a negative effect on economic growth through labor supply and saving rate; consumption has a positive effect on economic growth, but not as significant as the negative effect brought by labor supply and saving rate; Comprehensively, in the long run, population aging will bring downward pressure on economic growth. China\'s economy will decline by 5.6 percentage points from the base period to 2050.