中国外汇储备规模与汇率关系的实证研究-基于人民币对国外主要币种汇率的分析

he question of RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves has always been concerned by the academic and government as important issues and hot issues.In the background of successive years of growth in the foreign exchange reserve and the appreciation of the RMB against the dollar at present， this paper use the empirical analysis based on the cointegration, Granger causality test, and other time series analysis to study the relationship between the foreign exchange reserve and the major foreign currency exchange rates of RMB. The results show that no long-term cointegration between them, but exsit one-way causality from the foreign exchange reserve to the exchange rates. Foreign exchange reserves arise will rise to the growth of the RMB against the major foreign currency exchange rate, in the short term，foreign exchange reserves arise will bring some pressure to the growth of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. China should be considered the RMB exchange rate adjustments in order to ease the RMB＇s revaluation Pressure and reduce the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves.