担保链危机的传染机制

efine the concept of the guarantee chain crisis. Abstract the relationship of the enterprises' guarantee in real economy into guarantee chain model, analyzing the infecting process of the guarantee chain crisis, finding that the critical condition of level 1 neighbor infection, level 2 neighbor infecting and stopping infecting of the guarantee chain crisis has relationship to the asset-liability ratio after adjusting with guarantee. Establish the guarantee chain model, finding that the condition triggering level 1 neighbor infection, continuing to infect and stopping infecting of the guarantee chain crisis has relationship to the enterprise's guarantee amount to other enterprises. The model helps the regulators to warn the risk by two indexes which are asset-liability ratio and the external guarantee amount, preventing and reducing the infecting of the crisis, having positive effect to promote regional sustainable economic development and financial stability.