南京城市水资源承载力变化分析

In this paper, according to the characteristics of the formation and utilization of urban water resources, evaluation index system is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE), as well as analytic hierarchy process (AHP), are applied to analyze the changing of Nanjing's urban water resources carrying capacity in 2006-2010. The results show that Nanjing's urban water resources carrying capacity was roughly in the proper load range, and there was a growing trend in general for it, the main influencing factors for such changing are also analyzed. In order to achieve sustained growth, sensitivity analysis is applied to find out the sensitivity indexes, and select the rate of sewage treatment, GDP per capita and water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP three indexes for scenario analysis. It is find out that enhancement of the rate of sewage treatment and the decreasing of water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP are the supporting points to achieve the moderate growth for Nanjing social economy and steadily improvement for urban water resources carrying capacity, and the corresponding policy suggestions are also discussed.