我国商业车险奖惩系统的改进研究

he revival reform of the clause and rate making of commercial auto insurance started in China in 2015, this round of reform released a new version of the bonus-malus system which elaborated the levels, expanded the range of factors compared to the previous edition. However, there is still a certain gap with the accurate depiction of the insured\'s historical claim experience and there is still room for improvement in this version of the bonus-malus system. The paper starts with the analysis and evaluation of the current bonus-malus system of commercial auto insurance in China, and deeply explores the problems it is facing currently. To deal with the major defect result from that the claim amount is not considered, a bonus-malus system that includes both the number of claims and claim amount is built, the correlation between these two are considered, a solution for claim amount division based on decision tree algorithm and the calculation of relativities based on GLM and DHGLM is provided, and an empirical study based on actual data of an insurance company was conducted. It shows that the DHGLM provide better goodness-of-fits than the GLM; the claim amounts in last year is an important variable for risk differentiation, and a better bonus-malus system needs to take both the number of claims and the claim size; and the use of the bonus-malus system built in this paper can improve the shortcomings of China\'s current one to a certain extent.