地方政府债务对中国经济增长的影响研究

his paper analyzes the impact of local government debt on economic growth from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. In terms of theoretical analysis, based on growth accounting theory, this paper studies the influence mechanism of local government debt on economic growth from two aspects of investment and total factor productivity. In the empirical aspect, this paper studies the impact of local government debt on China\'s economic growth by using panel data of 29 Provinces from 2009 to 2020. The research draws the following conclusions: First, local government debt has an inverted U-shaped nonlinear impact on economic growth. When the local government debt level is below the critical value, the expansion of local government debt can significantly stimulate economic growth, while when the debt level is above the critical value, the expansion of local government debt will significantly inhibit economic growth. Second, investment and total factor productivity play a partial intermediary role in the process of local government debt affecting economic growth. Third, there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of local government debt on economic growth. Specifically, the inflection point of debt in central and western regions is higher than that in eastern regions.