逐步回归模型在预报普定水电站径流中的应用
pplication of Stepwise regression in runoff forecasting of Puding hydropower station
用1952-2008年普定月径流量、1951-2008年74项气象环流因子建立逐步回归模型，对1952-2006年普定水电站月径流量进行拟合预报，并对07、08年月径流进行试预报；结合气候变化，考虑太阳活动，预测未来1-5年年径流总量；进行误差分析，方程通过精度评定可以用作预报。
With the monthly runoff data of Puding station in 1952-2008, 74 meteorological circulation factors in 1951-2008, the paper builds up a regression model. It does fitting prediction with the monthly runoff in 1952-2006, and forecasts the runoff in 2007,2008. Combining climate change, considering the solar activity, it forecasts the annual runoff in next 1-5 years. Through error analysis, the equation passes the accuracy evaluation test and can be used in the forecast.
曹琨
水能利用、水电站工程
普定水电站逐步回归径流量预报
Puding hydropower stationstepwise regressionrunoffforecast
曹琨.逐步回归模型在预报普定水电站径流中的应用[EB/OL].(2010-04-26)[2025-08-03].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201004-957.点此复制
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