上海市光化学烟雾系统辨识实时迭代动力统计预报

he Dynamic Statistic Forcast Model of Photochemical Fog in Shanghai was established with MOS(Model output Statistics) and real-time iterative algorithm based on system identification,The forecast factors were selected according to the nalysis of relativity of the forcast object including weather factors、pollutant emission factors and rate of photochemical reaction, The results of a test 24-hours’ prediction.prove that the accuracy rate of classification forcast of hours’average thickness is above 88 percent and the relativity between forecast value and surveyed value is above 87 percent in Putuo、Nanhui、Dianshanhu and Xujiahui.