建筑存量长期发展的风险因素及其时空分布研究

hina possesses the largest building stock in the world, which has been highly dynamic during the rapid urbanization and modernization process. The long term development of the building stock should be able to cope with hazards and risks from natural disaster, technical failure, social development, management problem and lost cultural information. In this paper, the natural, social and economic hazards on the Chinese building stocks are identified. Then the spatial distribution and economic values of the building stocks are analysed at provincial level. The parameters include population, GDP, size and density of the building stock, etc. As a result, the temporal-spatial profiles of selected natural (earthquake) and social economic (change of population and demand) risk factors and their impacts on the evolution of the Chinese building stock are analysed and discussed. The future study is proposed in several stages at national, regional, urban and urban fragment levels.