中国制造业产业内贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

Intra-Industry Trade is recognized as one of the two discoveries in the area of international trade after the war, it’s status and role in the contemporary international trade pattern is becoming increasingly prominent. This paper firstly analyzes the level and structure of the IIT in Chinese manufacturing from 1992 to 2006 using GL index and GHM, it finds that Intra-Industry Trade have become the main pattern in Chinese manufacturing industry, and vertical intra-industry trade is the main part of IIT. Furthermore, via Eviews5.0,the paper empirically studied the relations between intra-industry trade in Chinese manufacturing and the economic growth in China.According to the Cointegration Regression and Error Correction Model, in the long term, the economic growth in China is positively related to the IIT in Chinese manufacturing. This positive relations also exists in the short time; the Granger no-causality test shows that the link between IIT in Chinese manufacturing and the economic growth is a two-way Granger causality; the Variance Decomposition describes the specification of the interaction. Finally, the paper gives conclusions.