时间序列模型在预测临床血液需求量中的应用

bstract: Objective Apply the time sequence for forecasting the demand of clinical blood. Methods Time sequence compound model was applied to establish a model based on the data obtained from the years 2005 to 2008, and forecast the seasonal demand of clinical blood of 2008 and 2009 years ,then compare the predictive value with the actual value of 2008 year to test the ability of model. Results Model of compound model Y=T•S•C was established for the time series needing analyzing with an average relative error of 1.0 %. Conclusion Time sequence compound model can analyze the relationship between clinical blood demand and different seasons with better predict effect , Its strong predictable ability can afford an effective tool for Inventories of blood center.