突发性传染病传播预测及控制模型研究
12BResearch on the Transmission Forecasting and Control Model of Paroxysmal Contagion
文章分析了早期传染病模型的缺点，并以SARS为例，阐述了突发性传染病传播的过程和规律。借鉴系统工程的思想，将SARS的传播过程模拟成一个具有指向性、整体性、环境适应性、层次性、可控性的动态灰色系统。利用微分方程建立突发性传染病传播的预测控制模型，应用MATLAB6.5对系统进行仿真，并针对政府控制力度对疫情传播的影响做出量化估计，为疾病的预防控制工作提供了充足可靠的信息。该模型可以广泛应用于其它传染疾病，有很强的移植性。
SARS was taken as an example to expatiate the transmission course and the rule of the paroxysmal contagion. The transmission course was simulated as a dynamic grey system with directivity, entirety, environmental adaptability, hierarchy, controllability. The transmission forecasting and control model was established by differential equation, and the system was emulated and programmed by MATLAB 6.5. The influence of the government control strength on the epidemic transmission was estimated in quantization, which offered reliable information sufficiently for prevention and control of the disease. The model can be used widely to forecast and control the transmission of other contagion
董志贵、宋庆凤、王金武
预防医学医学研究方法生物科学理论、生物科学方法
数学模型微分方程动态灰色系统SARS
mathematic modeldifferential equationdynamic gray systemSARS
董志贵,宋庆凤,王金武.突发性传染病传播预测及控制模型研究[EB/OL].(2008-03-21)[2025-08-21].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200803-624.点此复制
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