逐步回归与自回归模型在水文预报中的应用
pplication of Stepwise regression and autoregressive in hydrological forecasting
根据洪家渡水电站1952-2009年实测径流资料及1951-2008年74项气象因子，分别建立逐步回归与自回归模型对月径流量进行拟合预报，结果均通过精度检验，可用作预报。比较两种模型预报成果，发现逐步回归方程精度更高，更可信，但在资料有限的情况下，自回归方法可作为补充。
Based on the runoff data of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station in 1952-2009 and 74 meteorological factors in 1951-2008, the paper establishes stepwise regression and autoregressive models to predict monthly runoff of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station.The results have been through the precision test, so the models can be used in prediction. Comparing the two models, it is found stepwise regression equation is more precise and more reliable, but in the case of limited information, the autoregression model can be used as a supplement.
曹琨
水利工程基础科学水能利用、水电站工程治河工程、防洪工程
洪家渡径流量逐步回归自回归
Hongjiadurunoffstepwise regressionautoregressive
曹琨.逐步回归与自回归模型在水文预报中的应用[EB/OL].(2010-04-16)[2025-08-18].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201004-589.点此复制
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