宁夏回族自治区城市化与经济增长和环境压力互动关系的动态计量分析
Econometric Analysis of the Dynamic Interaction between Urbanization and Economic Growth and Environmental Pressure: Case of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
城市化作为现代经济发展的助推器和标志,在不断促进经济飞速增长的同时,也对环境产生了极大的影响。为探讨城市化过程的经济增长、环境压力效应,以及这些效应对城市化的反馈作用,文章以宁夏回族自治区为研究区域,首先分析了宁夏城市化、人均GDP以及环境压力的变化趋势,基于此,运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型(VECM)和Granger因果检验方法,对研究区1985-2005年间的城市化与经济增长、环境压力变量组指标的时间序列数据进行了分析,阐释了城市化与经济增长和环境压力在时序维度上的相互作用机制及其特征,结果表明:宁夏城市化与经济增长之间不存在Granger因果关系,两者之间还未形成良性互动;城市化与环境压力之间存在单向因果关系,城市化对环境压力的增大具有显著的正向效应,而且在短期内降低环境压力的难度较大。
s the symbol and driving-force of modern economic development, urbanization is impacting the environmental greatly while promoting the economic growth continually. In order to investigate the impacts of urbanization on economic growth and environmental, and the feedback effect on urbanization, the paper analysis the change trend of urbanization and economic growth, and evaluated environmental pressure indicated by ELR(Environmental Load Rate) and (Energy Waste Rate) from Emergy theory in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region during 1985-2005. And than applied the econometrics method of Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Relationship Test to analysis the temporal causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth, Environmental pressure in Ningxia. It is found that there is no causal relationship between urbanization and economic development and no positive interaction between them either. There has unidirectional causality from urbanization to environmental pressure. Urbanization has significant positive impacts on environmental pressure increasing. And for the Ningxia, it is very difficult to reduce the Environmental pressure in the short run.
张子龙、陈兴鹏、逯承鹏、郭晓佳
经济学环境科学理论环境污染、环境污染防治
城市化经济增长环境压力计量分析宁夏回族自治区
UrbanizationEconomic GrowthEnvironmental pressureEconometric AnalysisNingxia hui Autonomous Area
张子龙,陈兴鹏,逯承鹏,郭晓佳.宁夏回族自治区城市化与经济增长和环境压力互动关系的动态计量分析[EB/OL].(2010-01-20)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201001-879.点此复制
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