市场分割、信贷背离与地方经济波动

his paper first constructs a micro-theoretical analysis framework to study the impact of local government market segmentation on local economic fluctuations. The study found that when local government implements market segmentation policies, financial institutions, especially banks, will develop credit based on the "camera decision" of the pressure of the window Business can play the role of financial support for the economy when the market segmentation is weak. However, when the market segmentation is intensified, it will stimulate the divergence of local credit interest rates and disrupt the original stability of the local economy. Further sample data from 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) of China from 2002 to 2016 were selected for regression analysis. The results showed that: (1) Market segmentation had a "U" -shaped effect that slowed down and then expanded local economic fluctuations. (2) In the process of market segmentation affecting local economic fluctuations, the divergence of local credit interest rates has played an intermediary effect: it is a partial intermediary effect in the stage of market segmentation to reduce economic fluctuations, and a complete intermediary effect in the stage of market segmentation to expand economic fluctuations . In order to avoid that market segmentation under the influence of factors affects the stability of local economic development, it is necessary to prevent the intensification of local interest rate divergence.