蔬菜价格波动与通货膨胀关系的实证分析：基于Bootstrap方法

Using the method of Census X12 seasonal adjustment and HP filter, the source of vegetable price fluctuation is decomposed into four components, namely trend factor, seasonal factor, cyclical factor and irregular component. Based on this, this paper examines the relationship between the above components and inflation in China. The result shows that, vegetable price fluctuation mainly impacts on CPI through seasonal factor (changes in weather) and irregular component (natural disasters and other unexpected factors). Seasonal factor impacts on CPI with seasonal periodicity. The impact of irregular component on CPI is the most significant initially, and then gradually decreases. There exists self-sustaining mechanism of inflation. However, the variation of CPI is unable to fully explain the fluctuation in vegetable price.