汀江径流量动态变化与趋势预测分析
ynamic Change and Prediction of the Development Trend of Annual Runoff in Tingjiang River
通过分析近20年来汀江水资源的历史动态变化情况，研究了水资源总量及径流量的变化特征，结果表明，汀江水资源量的年际变化大且存在显著周期性变化,其中以五年为周期变化的趋势较明显。利用时间序列趋势叠加模型，对未来汀江径流量进行预测显示，在2006-2010年期间将存在一个枯水周期， 且径流量呈逐年减少趋势。
his paper analyst the dynamic change of Tingjiang River in 1985-2005, and expounds the characteristic of water resource. The result shows that there have 5 years periodic dynamic change and great variation in year-to-year precipitation in the Tingjiang’s annual runoff. Based on the fuzzy time series model, it predicts the future trend of Tingjiang’s river in 2006-2010. The result indicates that the Tingjiang annual runoff has a downward trend and will come into a low water period.
段勇
水利调查、水利规划水利经济
汀江径流量周期性预测
ingjiangannual runoffperiodicitydynamic change
段勇.汀江径流量动态变化与趋势预测分析[EB/OL].(2007-09-03)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200709-18.点此复制
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