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我国政府消费对经济增长的非线性影响研究

he Nonlinear Effects of Government Consumption on Economic Growth in China

中文摘要英文摘要

消费被称为拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一,政府消费作为消费的重要组成部分,对经济增长的影响也是不言而喻的。数据显示,我国近20年来最终消费率在走低,政府消费率却维持在一个平稳态势。本文基于我国1996-2015年的省际面板数据,采用面板平滑转换模型,探究政府消费支出对经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,政府消费支出对经济增长存在非线性关系,其影响为正。当一般预算收入增长率超过8.3%时,政府消费的正向影响力增强,可以更好地发挥对经济增长的促进作用。这一结论能为政府财政政策的制定提供参考。

onsumption is known as one of the "troika" of economic growth. Government consumption as an important part of consumption, the impact on economic growth is self-evident.Data show that the final consumption rate in the past 20 years in our country become more and more low, while government consumption has maintained at a stable situation.This article is based on provincial panel data from 1996 to 2015, using the panel smooth transformation model to explore the impact of government consumption expenditure on economic growth.The results show that government consumption expenditure has a nonlinear relationship with economic growth, and its impact is positive.When the growth rate of general budget revenue is over8.3%, the positive influence of government consumption will be enhanced,The Nonlinear Effects of Government Consumption on Economic Growth in China which will play a better role in promoting economic growth.This conclusion can provide reference for the establishment of the government fiscal policy.

袁微、段进

财政、金融

政府消费经济增长面板平滑转换模型

Government consumptionEconomic growthPanel smooth transformation model

袁微,段进.我国政府消费对经济增长的非线性影响研究[EB/OL].(2017-05-18)[2025-08-23].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201705-1138.点此复制

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