灰色马尔可乎动态链及其在煤矿安全预测中的作用

ombining the gray system theory and the discrete-state Markov chain theory, this paper proposes the Gray-Markov forecasting model to predict the death toll in coal mines. The model firstly makes trend prediction by establishing a gray GM (1,1) model in view of the grey data series, and then use the transfer matrix of Markov state probability forecasting method to predict the number of death in 2005. Calculations show that this method is feasible for it improves the accuracy.