基于PLUS土地利用模拟的阿克苏河流域NEP时空格局研究

Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) is a crucial indicator for assessing the arbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is a key factor influencing regional differences in carbon uptake. Analyzing the trends of LUCC and NEP is essential for achieving regional carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the LUCC and MODIS remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020 in the Aksu River Basin, the annual average carbon sequestration rate of each land use/cover type in the region was estimated. The LUCC for the next 40 years was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatial and temporal trend of NEP for the next 40 years in the river basin was predicted. The results show that: (1) the total NEP in the basin has shown an increasing trend in the past 20 years, with an uptake rate of 0.136 Mt C(10a)-1, and the average carbon sequestration rate of forest area is the highest; (2) the total carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin will continue to increase in the future 40 years. The increase in forest area is the main way of increasing carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin, and the positive role of ecological protection projects plays a key role in this process.