改革开放以来中国区域经济差异周期波动性研究

he regional economy of China has experienced significant changes in the three decades since 1978. With the transition from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, regional disparity in China has definitely widened. In this paper, the authors research a new perspective on the periodicity of Chinese regional disparity. First, a model of periodicity of Regional Disparity is set up, then both the absolute index ( for instance, the increase rate of per capital GDP) and relative index (such as the Williams index, and the Gin index of per capital GDP ) are adjusted into this model to analyze the Chinese regional disparity from 1978 to 2008 on the provincial scale. This paper demonstrates that (1) the relevant trajectory of regional disparity of China reveals a remarkable periodicity in years 6 and 9, rather than a phased convergence or staged proliferation, that (2) the periodicity of regional disparity is the result of the interconnection between an internalized economy and the externalized policies which gradually diminish in the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, and that (3) the authors disagree with some previous research which concluded that Chinese regional disparity had passed its historical climax around 2002. The authors demonstrate that by relative indices, the regional disparity as a whole has narrowed, while the internal disparity continued to widen until 2008.