基于故障树和能量法的公路线形安全性评价

In this pape, in order to enhance the accuracy of highway alignment safety evaluation, the crash comprehensive probability was formulated based on fault tree theory, taking sideslip/steering instability, rollover and rear-end crash into account.The driver-vehicle-road multi-body dynamics model was developed based on the three-dimensional alignments of Ning-Luo expressway using Carsim. Each section of the average crash probability were obtained after simulation and calculation, and compared with various sections of the average number of accidents.Results reveal that that at the confidence level of 0.01, when dividing the expressway into sections with lengths of 5km and 10km, respectively, the Spearman correlation coefficients between average crash probability and average number of accidents are 0.636 and 0.460. While the Spearman correlation coefficients using traditional fault tree are only 0.531 and 0.378.