基于灰色系统理论的辽宁省2010-2014年国内生产总值发展预测
he Forecasting For Gross Domestic Product Development of Liaoning Province From 2010 to 2014 Based on The Grey System Theory
灰色系统理论中的灰色预测法是一种对既含有已知信息又含有不确定因素的系统进行预测的方法。国民经济系统是一个典型的灰色系统，文章利用灰色系统理论中的GM（1,1）模型，依据2004年至2009年的辽宁省国内生产总值数据，建立了针对辽宁省国民经济生产总值的预测模型。得到了辽宁省2010年至2014年国内生产总值的预测值。然后将预测值与当年的真实值进行比对，表明预测效果符合要求。
Grey forecasting model provides a method to forecast a system in which there are both known information and uncertain factors.National economic system is a typical grey system in gray system theory. In this paper,a GM(1,1) model which in gray system theory is constructed for forecast gross domestic product (GDP) of Liaoning province,then on the basis of historical data from 2004-2009,we predict 2010-2014 the gross domestic product (GDP) of Liaoning province.Comparing with the real data,forecasting is of low absolute deviation,so model is ideal and acceptable.
陈振环
经济计划、经济管理
灰色系统理论灰色预测GDP预测模型
Grey system theoryGrey forecastingGDPForecasting model
陈振环.基于灰色系统理论的辽宁省2010-2014年国内生产总值发展预测[EB/OL].(2011-03-28)[2025-08-02].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201103-1048.点此复制
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