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中国人口增长模型

he China's population growth

中文摘要英文摘要

中国人口的增长对国家带来各种各样的影响,对于人口增长的预测很有实际影响,对于求解问题,我们首先想到了Malthus模型。该模型对条件的要求较严格,由此我们同时还采用了Logistic模型对人口进行预测,该模型对Malthus模型的缺陷作了适当的弥补,现实中,影响人口的因素很多,人口也不能无限的增长下去,Logistic模型引进常数N表示自然资源和环境所能承受的最大人口数,因而得到了一个贝努利方程的初值问题公式,从实际效果来看,这个公式较好的符合实际情况的发展,随着时间的递增,人口不是无限增长的,而是趋近于一个数,这个即为最大承受数。我们还同时对数据作了深入的探讨,作数据分析预测,通过观测比较选择一个比较好的拟合模型然后进行预测。采用拟合方法得到的结果和用贝努利方程的初值问题公式得到的结果进行比较。

hina's population growth to the impact of various countries, the population growth forecast is very practical implications for solving the problem, we first thought of Malthus model. The model of the requirements more stringent conditions, which we also used the Logistic model to predict the population, the model of Malthus model of the defects were the appropriate remedy, in reality, there are many factors affecting the population, the population can not be unlimited Growth continue, Logistic Model N said that the introduction of constant natural resources and the environment can bear the biggest population and thus be a Bernoulli equation formula of the initial problems, from the practical effect of view, this formula better meet the actual situation Development, as time increases, population growth is not unlimited, but near a few, this is the largest number of bear. We also made an in-depth information on the study, for data analysis and forecasting, through the observation of a relatively good choice and then fitting model to predict. A fitting method and the use of the results of the initial value problem Bernoulli equation formula to compare the results.

徐云龙、张远四、石玉文

数学自然科学理论

Malthus模型Logistic模型贝努利方程的初值问题费尔哈斯模型最小二乘法

Malthus Model Logistic Model Bei Nuli Equation Initial-value Problem Fil Hass Model Least Squares Method Law

徐云龙,张远四,石玉文.中国人口增长模型[EB/OL].(2008-05-13)[2025-08-11].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200805-325.点此复制

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