中美贸易顺差影响因素的实证分析
he empirical analysis of influencing factors about Sino-US trade surplus
中美贸易顺差问题历年来都是两国政治经济的热点。到2007年第四季度，中国对美国的贸易顺差额度占到了美国总的逆差额度的1/4还要多。这种状态在中国的经济发展速度远高于美国的情况下，会对两国未来贸易的顺利进行产生一定的影响。在我国同美国贸易摩擦逐渐增多的情况下，人民币是否应当升值，国内的其他因素又是如何影响两国间贸易的？为了能够对中美贸易的现状作进一步的了解，本文给出了1994年第1季度至2007年第四季度的中美贸易顺差额及其影响因素的实证分析，旨在探究影响中美两国贸易顺差的因素，并在实证分析的基础上给出相应的政策建议，以使两国间贸易趋于平衡，从而减缓中国政府面临的政治压力。
s we all know, the problem of The China-United States Bilateral Trade Balance has become a hot political and economic topic between the two countries. Until the forth quarter of 2007, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. is more than a quarter of the U.S. trade deficit and, with China growing faster than the U.S., raises questions about its future course. On the increasing trade frictions between the two countries, whether the RMB should appreciate or not, what about the other factors? In order to know something about the trade between the two countries, we give the empirical analysis of China-U.S.Trade and its affecting factors range from 1994 to 2007 quarterly. Also, this passage is going to find general affecting factors of China- U.S.Trade, give relevant policy suggestion and hope to less trade friction, thus let our country cope with the international political pressure more easily!
钟昌标、梁振
贸易经济世界经济经济学
中美贸易顺差汇率国内生产总值通胀率政策因素Granger 检验
Surplus of China-U.S.TradeExchange rateGross domestic productInflation ratePolicy factorsGranger causality test
钟昌标,梁振.中美贸易顺差影响因素的实证分析[EB/OL].(2009-04-24)[2025-08-03].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200904-792.点此复制
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