基于季节调整的CPI与PPI传导关系研究

he change of CPI and PPI is of great impact on our accurate judgment of domestic price movements, and it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between CPI and PPI. The current study does not take into account the seasonal factors on the impact of CPI and PPI. In this paper, the X-13ARIMA-SEATS model is selected and the Spring Festival effect variable is introduced to adjust the CPI and PPI monthly data in China. It is found that the adjusted data can reflect the real changes of the price level in China. The trend of CPI and PPI is decomposed by BK filtering method, and the trend factors and cycle factors are obtained. It is found that the relationship between CPI and PPI is bidirectional and fluctuating, and the economic cycle leads to the upside down phenomenon.