基于灰色理论的价格变异预测决策系统及应用
he price variation prediction strategic system based on Grey System
本文采用灰色系统的预测方法，建立了基于价格指数的灰色预测模型GM(1,1),并用灾变预测的思想建立价格等级体系，从而设计出一套针对价格变异的预测决策系统。同时，文章以2007年猪肉涨价这一突发事件为例，从小样本出发，提出价格变异等相关理论，建立起一个具体的基于灰色系统理论的猪肉价格预测决策系统。经过残差分析、精度检验等手段表明，此套针对猪肉价格变异的预测决策系统具有良好的可操作性，同时也可推广至其它非本征性经济领域。最后，本文提出具体的政府实施方案，使该系统有较强的现实指导意义和应用价值。
he paper adopts the prediction of grey system, setting an example on small sample. It gives a grey prediction model GM(1,1) on price index ,establishing a price estate system based on disaster sequence. And the paper concludes a prediction strategic system aimed at price variation. Then the article sets an example on the pork prize accident in 2007. By residual analyze and precision test, the prediction system can reflect the real situation and popularize the other non-essential type economic field. At last this paper presents the specific implementation for the government, which has a strong practical guide and application value.
徐黄华
经济计划、经济管理农业经济自动化技术经济
GM（1，1）模型猪肉价格指数灰色预测
GM(11)modelPork price indexGrey prediction
徐黄华.基于灰色理论的价格变异预测决策系统及应用[EB/OL].(2008-10-08)[2025-08-18].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/200810-99.点此复制
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