美丽中国“35目标”和“50愿景”情景模拟

Realizing the Beautiful China Initiative is the general goal of Chinas ecological civilization construction in the next 30years. The overall goal includes two phased goals: 35 goals and 50 vision. This study first expounds the understanding of the goalfrom the aspects of ecosystem elements, structure, process, and function, and then constructs an index system to describe the goal andsimulates the 35 goals and 50 vision under the trend of climate change, population decline and economic growth. The results showthat, by 2035, China will have a population of 1.44 billion (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and a GDP of 200 trillion yuan,making it one of the moderately developed countries. The national forest coverage rate will be 26%; the quality of surface water willreach above Class III, and the quality of offshore waters will reach Class II or above; and urban air quality will reach national excellentstandards. By 2050, the country will have a population of 1.365 billion and GDP 380 trillion yuan, entering the ranks of high-incomecountries. The national forest coverage rate will be 30%; the water quality of surface water and offshore waters will reach Class IIstandards; and the urban air quality will reach the level of developed countries. There is still a clear gap between the reality and thevision. To achieve the two phased goals of the Beautiful China Initiative as scheduled, we need to vigorously promote pollutionreduction, carbon reduction, green expansion, grain increase, and green development in the future.