考虑全要素生产率的中国碳排放影响因素分析

With the rapid socio-economic development of China, energy consumption and environmental problems have become increasingly serious, especially the effect which results from the increasing carbon emission has become the worldwide focus. Global warming has great effect on agriculture and food security, water safety, ecological safety and public health security. It has brought severe challenges to the sustainable development of human society. In order to analysis the factors comprehensively, this article combines endogenous growth theory and environmental analysis on the basis of existing research, establishes the model of factors on China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s carbon emissions considering the factor of TFP growth, analysis the factors of China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s carbon emissions comprehensively, using the OLS method. The results show that among all the increasing factors, economic growth and energy consumption play a dominant role, and international trade follows them, the influence coefficients are 0.277,0.408 and 0.321 respectively. The results of the carbon emissions arising from economic growth of all the research around the world are different, while the results of the carbon emissions from energy consumption are the same. The proportion of coal consumption in China remains about 70% since 1953, so the more energy is consumed, the more carbon emissions will be released. The conclusion of international trade is consistent with the results of other domestic research on implied carbon produced in international trade using the input-output analysis. While science & technology and technology transfer limit China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s carbon emissions, and non-state economy follows them, and the influence coefficients are -5.262, -1.315 and -0.172 respectively. It is clearly that the domestic R&D plays the most important role in carbon emission inhibition. The non-state economy can also help to decrease the carbon emissions. So China should pay more attention to self innovation and continue to promote market-oriented reforms. The final consumption rate plays the inverted U role, which shows that after crossing the highest consumption level, the increasing final consumption can help China to reduce carbon emissions. People have to pay attention to that China\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s environmental laws and regulations do not depress the carbon emissions. Finally, according to the results, the corresponding policy recommendations are offered. The policies focus on the following areas: firstly, China should make energy development strategy; secondly, China should strengthen the implementation of environmental regulations; thirdly, the government should guide enterprises to export clean technology products; fourthly, the civil society organizations should strengthen climate change awareness. All of the Chinese people should unite to make construction of the intensive, conservation and ecological model of low-carbon economy.