Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
Abstract Lassa fever is listed among the diseases that pose the greatest risks to public health by the World Health Organization. This severe viral hemorrhagic fever is caused by Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate change, transformations in land use, and human population growth could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. We project that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in areas suitable for Lassa virus may grow from about 100 million to 700 million by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. Our results highlight how the endemic area of Lassa virus may expand well beyond West Africa in the next decades due to human impact on the environment, putting hundreds of million more people at risk of infection.
Kafetzopoulou Liana E.、Thiery Wim、Dudas Gytis、Sandi John Demby、Goba Augustine、Grant Donald S.、Garry Robert F.、Zeller Mark、Gryseels Sophie、Dellicour Simon、Pauthner Matthias G.、Smither Allison R.、Alhasan Foday、Klitting Rapha?lle、G¨1nther Stephan、Suchard Marc A.、Hughes Laura D.、Momoh Mambu、Kotamarthi Anjali、Lemey Philippe、McGraw Michelle、Duraffour Sophie、Vrancken Bram、Gangavarapu Karthik、Andersen Kristian G.
Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven||Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical MedicineDepartment of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit BrusselDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government HospitalViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government HospitalViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital||Ministry of Health and SanitationZalgen Labs, LCC||Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of MedicineDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of LeuvenDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven||Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universit¨| Libre de BruxellesDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of MedicineViral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government HospitalDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteBernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine||German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Hamburg¨CL¨1beck¨CBorstel¨CRiemsDepartment of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California||Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California||Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of CaliforniaDepartment of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research InstituteEastern Technical University of Sierra Leone||Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government HospitalDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of LeuvenDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteBernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine||German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Hamburg¨CL¨1beck¨CBorstel¨CRiemsDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of LeuvenDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research InstituteDepartment of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute||Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla
医学研究方法预防医学环境科学理论
Lassa virusecological niche modellingclimate changeland use changephylodynamicslandscape phylogeography
Kafetzopoulou Liana E.,Thiery Wim,Dudas Gytis,Sandi John Demby,Goba Augustine,Grant Donald S.,Garry Robert F.,Zeller Mark,Gryseels Sophie,Dellicour Simon,Pauthner Matthias G.,Smither Allison R.,Alhasan Foday,Klitting Rapha?lle,G¨1nther Stephan,Suchard Marc A.,Hughes Laura D.,Momoh Mambu,Kotamarthi Anjali,Lemey Philippe,McGraw Michelle,Duraffour Sophie,Vrancken Bram,Gangavarapu Karthik,Andersen Kristian G..Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades[EB/OL].(2025-03-28)[2025-05-01].https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.22.461380.点此复制
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