灰色系统理论在节能减排工作中的应用

Gray system theory can solve the problems with a small sample size or little information effectively, which mainly through parts of known information, extracting valuable information, to obtain correct description and effective monitoring about system behavior and evolution.The article is based on the energy consumption data of Gansu Province from 1999 to 2007, building a GM (1, 1) model to predict the energy consumption data from 2008 to 2015 by using gray system theory. The result shows energy consumption data of Gansu Province will be 55.5075, 60.4392, 65.8091, 71.6561, 78.0226, 84.9547, 92.5028, 100.7214 millions tons of standard coal from 2008 to 2015.And this is a creditable and reliable result, wich passed the precision verification because both varianceratio C and probability of least error P are good(“Good” represents the best results in this evaluation system). Some conclusions can be drawn through the forecast results of energy consumption:1)Energy consumption data of Gansu Province will continue to increase with a high speed, by 2015 will exceed 100 millions tons of standard coal;if it is in accordance with the existing mechanism for the growth of energy consumption.2)Gansu Province is typical province that the development mainly bases on resource,and it is a less developed western province in China too.So, sustainability of economic development and energy consumption very important,as a result of, energy-saving and emission-reduction must be imperative under the situation in Gansu Province.3) Therefore, in Gansu Province, operable and impactful measures must be taken to make rational planning for energy cosumption and to achieve the goals of energy-saving and emission- reduction.