山东省旅游业景气的短期预测模型

Based on the actual situation of tourism development in Shandong Province, this paper selected the total tourism revenue (100 million yuan), the number of inbound tourists, the number of tourist meals17 factors. Through cluster analysis and rank sum test, the indexes were selected. Finally, 10 indicators of the four categories were selected as early warning indicators and the time difference The correlation coefficient method divides the leading index, the synchronous index and the lagging index. Among them, the leading index includes the mileage of the highway, the total population and the number of tourists; the synchronization index includes the number of travel agencies and GDP per capita; the lagging indicators include railway, investment in fixed assets, disposable income, CPI, and then analyze the reasons for the classification of each index. Finally, based on this, the diffusion index and the composite index are constructed. The results show that the constructed diffusion index and composite index have a good consistency with the actual economic activity. In addition, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve tourism in Shandong Province from the aspects of resources, management system and employees based on the tourism-related data.)