我国通货膨胀对私人投资的非线性影响研究
Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Private Investment in China
基于非线性分析方法中的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型对我国通货膨胀与私人投资的关系进行了实证研究,主要得出两个结论:(1)当通货膨胀率小于3.36%时,通货膨胀不确定性和银行贷款对私人投资表现出正向影响;当通货膨胀率大于5.88%时,通货膨胀不确定性和银行贷款对私人投资表现出负向影响;当通货膨胀率由3.36%上升至5.88%时,影响由正向转变为负向。(2)在不同的通货膨胀区间内,公共投资对私人投资的影响与通货膨胀不确定性和银行贷款的表现正好相反。基于结论(1),本文建议中央银行将通货膨胀率调控在3.36%以下。基于结论(2),为了将通货膨胀率保持在3.36%以下,政府应该优化公共投资的结构与规模,充分发挥对私人投资的正向引导作用。
By using the idea of regime switching as a new methodological approach, this paper analyzes the effects of inflation on private investment in China. The results show that: (1) when the inflation rate is below 3.36%, inflation uncertainty has a positive effect on private investment, as well as bank credit. While it is above 5.88%, private investment will be negatively impacted by inflation uncertainty and bank credit. The above two regimes transition occurs when the inflation rate is between 3.36% and 5.88%; (2) the impact of public investment on private investment is opposite to inflation uncertainty and bank credit. Therefore, the central bank should keep the inflation rate below 3.36%. In order to keep low inflation rate and promote private investment, government should optimize the structure and scale of public investment.
段进、黄琼
财政、金融
宏观经济学通货膨胀率通货膨胀不确定性私人投资非线性影响PSTR模型
MacroeconomicsInflation rateInflation uncertaintyPrivate investmentNonlinear effectsPanel smoothing transition model
段进,黄琼.我国通货膨胀对私人投资的非线性影响研究[EB/OL].(2015-05-14)[2025-08-05].http://www.paper.edu.cn/releasepaper/content/201505-179.点此复制
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