一个研究动植物量变化的新模型

Of the annual catch mink data time series analysis, combined with the known statistical characteristics of data, data from the regression coefficients and data, such as linear discriminant model to identify the steps, then the paper uses the data to set up the threshold auto-regressive by the mathematical model. As the threshold auto-regressive model of programming is extremely complex, the paper makes use of biological characteristics of the mink and gives the important characteristic value-- delay steps. Combined with the way of points map and golden section method, we obtain the number of threshold and the threshold value, so, we simplify the model and get a good fitting and forecasting. Finally we develop a simple modeling method to solution a general analysis of biological data.