基于Poisson过程的交通冲突预测模型研究

bstract: Traffic conflict predicting is defined as predicting the times of the possible conflicts by means of analyzing the characteristic of traffic flow, to provide a dependable and feasible method to traffic safety evaluation of transport interchange, such as intersections. The factors which influencing the conflicts of vehicles refer to the exposure time at the conflict point, the arriving characteristics during the exposure time, and the time headway among the vehicles ,etc. By analyzing the conflict process of traffic conflict point, this paper presents a definition to the times of traffic conflicts, and by applying the theory of Stochastic Process to it, constructs a predicting model for the times of traffic conflicts among vehicles at conflict point. The research of comparing the result to the other predicting model, showing the predictive accuracy is improved.