基于Bayes方法的可靠性建模

More and more wind turbines are put into use in recent years. As the amount increasing and the operation time accumulating, wind turbines subject to different sort of failures. As observing a wind farm for three years, this paper aims at presenting a general method to model the reliability of wind turbines using the recording field data, in which the wind turbine is considered as a whole system. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to improve the completeness of field data, and the Bayes theorem combined with Gibbs sampling is applied to predict the future reliability based on the failure data. The assess model given in the paper is of great significance in assessing operational reliability for wind turbines.